Australian summer cropping is entering 2026–27 with tighter water availability, low soil moisture across key northern regions, and a weaker production outlook for both cotton and sorghum. For KG2 Australia, this analysis looks at what current ABARES data shows for cotton and sorghum, where these crops are grown, and how rainfall, stored soil moisture, irrigation, and market conditions are influencing planting decisions. To discuss agricultural data, farmer intelligence, or regional trends with us, connect with our team.
What is the Outlook for Australian Cotton and Sorghum?
The outlook is cautious. ABARES forecasts national summer crop production to fall 25% to 3.4 million tonnes in 2026–27, while the total summer cropping area is forecast to decline 17% to 1.1 million hectares. Below-average late-winter soil moisture and limited irrigation water are key constraints.
Sorghum production is forecast at just over 1.9 million tonnes, down 26%, while planted area is forecast to fall 9% to 592,000 hectares. Cotton lint production is forecast to fall 34% to 697,000 tonnes, with cotton area down 34% to 301,000 hectares.
Where are Cotton and Sorghum Mainly Grown?
Cotton is mainly grown across inland New South Wales and southern Queensland, including the Gwydir, Namoi, Macquarie, Border Rivers and Condamine-Balonne regions. Central Queensland also contributes to production. The cotton growing season generally runs from September or October planting to March or April picking.
Sorghum is mainly grown in Queensland and northern New South Wales and is the dominant summer crop in the northern grains region. Growing systems extend from the Darling Downs and southern Queensland into areas such as the Liverpool Plains and North West NSW.
How are Seasonal Conditions Affecting Summer Crop Production?
Water is the main point of difference. Cotton planting decisions are strongly influenced by available irrigation water, while sorghum offers greater flexibility where growers have suitable stored soil moisture and rainfall prospects.
ABARES expects Queensland cotton lint production to fall 27% to 254,000 tonnes in 2026–27. The planted area is forecast at 108,000 hectares, reflecting reduced irrigation water availability, limited stored moisture and an unfavourable spring rainfall outlook for dryland production.
Queensland sorghum production is forecast to fall 25% to 1.3 million tonnes. However, its wider planting window provides some flexibility if rainfall improves. In NSW, sorghum production is forecast to fall 29% to 600,000 tonnes, while cotton lint production is forecast to fall 40% to 389,000 tonnes.
What Do Market Conditions Mean for Cotton and Sorghum?
Market signals remain important to crop choice, but seasonal conditions are currently a stronger constraint. ABARES forecasts the gross value of Australian sorghum production to fall 22% to $738 million in 2026–27, while rising coarse grain prices are linked to tighter global export supply. Cotton’s gross production value is forecast to fall 29% to $1.8 billion, despite the Cotlook A Index being forecast to rise 12% to an average 90 US cents per pound.
The key takeaway is that price alone does not determine planting intentions. Water security, soil moisture, rainfall timing and expected yield remain central to summer cropping decisions.
What Does this Mean for Australian Summer Cropping?
The 2026–27 cotton and sorghum outlook shows the value of timely, region-specific agricultural intelligence. National figures show the overall direction of production, but farm-level conditions vary considerably across Queensland and New South Wales.
At KG2 Australia, we combine farmer engagement, agricultural data, remote sensing and analytics to provide a grounded view of Australian farming activity. For organisations needing clearer visibility of cropping trends, regional conditions or farmer behaviour, get in touch with us.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is cotton planted in Australia?
Cotton is generally planted from September to October, with the crop harvested from March to April. Timing varies with region, soil temperature, moisture, and production system.
When is sorghum planted in Australia?
Sorghum is generally planted from spring into summer in the northern grains region. GRDC research identifies traditional planting from early to mid-September, while Queensland has a relatively wide planting window.
Where is most Australian cotton grown?
The main cotton-growing regions are inland New South Wales and southern Queensland, with additional production in central Queensland.
Where is most Australian sorghum grown?
Queensland and northern New South Wales account for the bulk of Australian sorghum production.
Which crop is more dependent on irrigation?
Cotton is generally more dependent on secure irrigation supplies, although both crops use irrigation and rainfall depending on the production system. ABARES identifies water availability as a major constraint on current cotton planting.
How are dry conditions affecting summer cropping in 2026–27?
Low soil moisture and limited irrigation water are reducing planting intentions. ABARES forecasts lower national production for both sorghum and cotton, although improved spring rainfall could change planting outcomes, particularly for sorghum.
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